{"id":23,"date":"2008-07-14T18:09:29","date_gmt":"2008-07-14T23:09:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/gentropy.org\/blogs\/?p=23"},"modified":"2008-07-14T18:09:29","modified_gmt":"2008-07-14T23:09:29","slug":"probability-is-subjectively-objective","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gentropy.org\/blogs\/2008\/07\/14\/probability-is-subjectively-objective\/","title":{"rendered":"Probability is Subjectively Objective"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p>Jaynes used to recommend that no one ever write out an unconditional probability:  That you never, ever write simply P(A), but always write P(A|I), where I is your prior information.  I&#8217;ll use Q instead of I, for ease of reading, but Jaynes used I.  Similarly, one would not write P(A|B) for the posterior probability of A given that we learn B, but rather P(A|B,Q), the probability of A given that we learn B and had background information Q.<\/p>\n<p>This is good advice in a purely pragmatic sense, when you see how many false &#8220;paradoxes&#8221; are generated by accidentally using different prior information in different places.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>at<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.overcomingbias.com\/2008\/07\/probability-is.html\">Probability is Subjectively Objective<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jaynes used to recommend that no one ever write out an unconditional probability: That you never, ever write simply P(A), but always write P(A|I), where I is your prior information. I&#8217;ll use Q instead of I, for ease of reading, but Jaynes used I. Similarly, one would not write P(A|B) for the posterior probability of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gentropy.org\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gentropy.org\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gentropy.org\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gentropy.org\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gentropy.org\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/gentropy.org\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gentropy.org\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gentropy.org\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gentropy.org\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}